Du Plessis vs. Usman Odds, Predictions & Best Bets for UFC Fight Night
CBSSports.com · July 18, 2026
Key takeaways
- Dricus du Plessis is a moderate betting favorite over former welterweight champ Kamaru Usman in this cross-weight UFC Fight Night main event.
- Experts favor du Plessis by decision, pointing to his cardio and finishing instincts against Usman's wrestling-heavy control game.
- The total rounds over/under and method-of-victory props offer added value beyond the straight moneyline bet.
Two former champions collide when Dricus du Plessis steps in against Kamaru Usman in a UFC Fight Night main event that's got the betting world buzzing. Du Plessis, the reigning middleweight king known for his gritty, unorthodox style, is jumping into a matchup against one of the most dominant welterweights in UFC history — and the oddsmakers have taken notice.
The Fighters and the Stakes
Du Plessis built his reputation on relentless pressure, granite chin and a knack for finding a finish when the fight gets ugly. He's proven he can win rounds even when he's losing the technical striking exchanges, which makes him a nightmare stylistic matchup for a lot of the division. Usman, meanwhile, is a legend of the sport — a former two-time welterweight champion whose wrestling-heavy, high-volume approach dominated the 170-pound weight class for years. Moving up (or across) to share the Octagon with du Plessis puts Usman's size, power and durability to the test against a fresher, hungrier champion.
What the Odds Say
Sportsbooks have installed a line reflecting du Plessis as a modest favorite, though the number is close enough that sharp bettors see real value on both sides depending on how the fight is expected to play out. Usman's takedown pedigree and clinch control give him a path to a decision win if he can neutralize du Plessis's scrambles, while du Plessis's cardio and finishing instincts make him live for a late stoppage if the pace stays high.
Best Bets According to the Experts
CBS Sports' MMA betting experts broke down the matchup with a few angles worth watching:
- **Moneyline lean:** Du Plessis to win, given his recent form and durability advantage.
- **Method of victory prop:** Look at du Plessis by decision, since Usman's wrestling could drag the fight into deep waters where the champ's gas tank shines.
- **Round total:** The over on total rounds makes sense if both fighters respect each other's power early, leading to a measured, feeling-out pace before things open up late.
When and How to Watch
The card streams live with the main card kicking off in prime time, giving bettors a full undercard to build parlays around before the headline bout goes down. Check local listings and streaming platforms for exact start times in your time zone.
Bottom Line
This is the kind of crossover fight the UFC loves to book — a size mismatch on paper that turns into a legit pick 'em once styles and experience are factored in. Whether you're betting the moneyline, a method-of-victory prop or just watching for the highlight reel, du Plessis vs. Usman has all the makings of a Fight Night that overdelivers.
Why it matters
For MMA fans and bettors, this matchup pits two championship pedigrees against each other in a rare cross-weight showdown, making it one of the most compelling Fight Night cards of the year. Understanding the odds and expert picks helps casual fans and bettors alike make smarter, more informed wagers.
Want deals on what you love?
Val finds local offers matched to your interests — free to start.
Meet Val