Mets' Tarik Skubal Pursuit: Why Years, Not Dollars, Could Decide It

The Setup: Mets Need an Ace, Skubal Is About to Be Available

The Mets' 2026 season ended at 74-88, and the pitching staff was a big reason why. Tarik Skubal, the Dodgers' left-hander, is set to hit free agency after the season, and according to MLB insider Chelsea Janes, New York could be a real suitor. Scott Boras, Skubal's agent, is reportedly already preparing to pitch the idea straight to owner Steve Cohen — a relationship with a track record of producing blockbuster deals.

So why isn't this a slam dunk? Because the obstacle here isn't the Mets' willingness to spend. It's something money literally can't fix: term length.

Why This Isn't Just About the Check

Skubal turns 30 in November, and by most projections (Jeff Passan has floated numbers around 10 years and roughly $500 million), he's going to command a true mega-deal — the kind that stretches a pitcher's contract into his late thirties. That's a long runway for any arm, but it gets riskier when you factor in that Skubal had elbow surgery during the 2026 season.

David Stearns, the Mets' president of baseball operations, has built a reputation for avoiding exactly this kind of exposure. His handling of Clay Holmes — a three-year deal instead of a long-term commitment — shows a front office that prefers flexibility over locking in a decade of risk. Skubal's market could force Stearns into a decision that goes against everything he's prioritized so far: pay big, short-term, or pay big, long-term, with an arm that's already had surgery this year.

The Boras-Cohen Factor

This is where things get interesting. Steve Cohen has shown he's willing to write checks that other owners wouldn't touch, and Scott Boras has a long history of getting top dollar and long years for his top clients. If Boras is already planning to make his case directly to Cohen, it suggests he knows the money won't be the hard part — the years will be.

The real question for Mets fans: does ownership override its own front office's philosophy to land a true ace? Stearns has shown restraint before, but Cohen has shown he can push past that restraint when the player is worth it.

What to Watch This Offseason

Keep an eye on how the Mets handle their rotation needs in the coming weeks. If they're aggressive early in free agency talks, that's a signal Cohen might be ready to go long with Skubal despite the injury history. If Stearns' short-term preference holds, expect the Mets to pursue a different kind of rotation fix — and Skubal to land elsewhere, possibly back with the Dodgers or with another big-market team willing to gamble on a decade-long deal.