MLB Wild Card Comebacks: Ranking the Game 1 Losers' Chances

The Math Isn't Pretty

Since MLB expanded the Wild Card Round to a best-of-three in 2022, teams that win Game 1 are 15-1 in the series. That's not a slump you talk your way out of — that's basically a death sentence. And on Tuesday, four teams found themselves staring at exactly that math: the Astros, Cubs, Phillies, and Red Sox all dropped Game 1 and now need to win twice in a row just to survive.

So who's actually got a shot? Let's rank them.

4. Houston Astros

Houston backed into the playoffs at 81-81, the lowest bar for a playoff team since the format expanded in 1994. That they still won the AL West says more about their division than their roster. Tuesday's 6-3 loss to the White Sox wasn't a fluke — it was a preview of the same issues that plagued them all season. When your résumé is this thin, climbing out of an 0-1 hole against a hot opponent is a tall order. The Astros have the pedigree and postseason DNA, but pedigree doesn't cash checks in October.

3. Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have more talent up and down the roster than Houston, and a lineup that can erupt in a hurry. Alex Bregman gives them a steady presence at third, and this group has shown flashes of the kind of explosive offense that flips a series overnight. The problem is margin for error — none. One bad bullpen inning and the season's over. Still, if any team on this list can scratch out a win by sheer offensive firepower, it's Chicago.

2. Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia has been here before — postseason pressure doesn't rattle this group the way it might a younger roster. They've got the starting pitching depth to lean on in an elimination game, and a lineup that's proven it can turn a series in one swing. Dropping Game 1 stings, but the Phillies have the experience and the arms to make this a real fight.

1. Boston Red Sox

Boston gets the top spot here, mostly because they've shown the most resilience in the regular season's final stretch. A team that's used to grinding through adversity has a mental edge in a win-or-go-home spot, and their pitching staff gives them a legitimate path to stealing two straight. If any of these four teams turns Wednesday's must-win into the start of a comeback story, it's the Red Sox.

The Bottom Line

History says none of these teams survive. But history also gets rewritten every October. Wednesday's slate is appointment viewing — four teams, one night, and a stat that's begging to be proven wrong.