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NASCAR Insider Snubs Ryan Blaney's New Hampshire Title Defense

Essentially Sports · August 21, 2026

Key takeaways

Ryan Blaney is the defending winner at New Hampshire and sits second in Cup Series points, but PRN analyst David Styles isn't backing him this week.
Styles favors Christopher Bell (+100) over Blaney (-130) in a head-to-head Caesars matchup bet, citing recent form and track fit.
New Hampshire's flat, one-mile layout often shakes up expectations, meaning past track success doesn't guarantee a repeat performance.

The Setup: Blaney Should Be the Pick

Ryan Blaney rolls into New Hampshire Motor Speedway this weekend with every reason to feel good. He's the defending race winner at the track, led 116 laps there last year, sits second in the Cup Series standings, and has already punched his ticket into the Chase. By almost any measure, that's a resume built for a repeat.

So when a NASCAR insider says "not so fast," people notice.

The Bold Claim

PRN analyst David Styles broke from the pack this week, saying flatly he's "not really favoring Ryan Blaney" heading into New Hampshire. Styles pointed specifically to a head-to-head matchup bet on Caesars pitting Blaney against Christopher Bell, where Blaney is favored at -130 and Bell sits at +100. Despite the sportsbooks leaning Blaney's way, Styles is siding with the underdog, arguing Bell's recent form and setup at flat tracks make him the sharper pick this week over the reigning race winner.

It's not a knock on Blaney's talent or Team Penske's speed. It's a bet that momentum, recent trends, and matchup value matter more than history at a single track.

Why New Hampshire Is a Different Animal

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a flat, one-mile bullring where track position and handling matter more than raw horsepower. Winners there don't always carry their form from other track types, which is exactly the kind of nuance insiders like Styles are paid to spot. A driver who dominated last year can just as easily struggle if the car isn't dialed in for this specific surface and layout this time around.

Blaney's Chase spot is safe regardless of what happens this weekend, which actually raises an interesting wrinkle — some drivers with nothing to prove points-wise loosen up and take more risks, while others coast. How Blaney approaches New Hampshire with a title defense on the line but playoff security already banked will be worth watching.

What to Watch This Weekend

Keep an eye on practice and qualifying speeds heading into race day. If Blaney's Ford is fast in short runs but fades late, that lines up with the skepticism Styles is voicing. If Bell's No. 20 team shows strong long-run pace, the insider's contrarian call starts to look less bold and more prescient.

Either way, New Hampshire has a habit of humbling favorites, and this week's betting matchups suggest at least one sharp voice in the NASCAR media world isn't ready to hand Blaney a repeat.

Why it matters

For NASCAR fans and bettors alike, insider picks like this shape how people watch the race and where they put their money. It's a reminder that even a defending winner locked into the playoffs isn't automatically the safest bet on race day.